Prediction Markets Put the US-Iran Ceasefire on a Short Clock
By Jamie Redman
Traders on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have wagered over $16.5 million on the timing and likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire amid perceptions of a fragile truce. Polymarket's market on US-Iran military operations reached $16.4 million in volume, assigning 42% odds to an end by April 30. Kalshi gives only a 16% chance to the ceasefire holding.
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